It was a rough Week 7 for the sportsbooks in Vegas, with bettors receiving the perfect storm of bad teams getting crushed at the same time.
The Raiders, Dolphins, Titans, Jets and Saints all played at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday and lost by a combined score of 132–39. The oddsmakers lost more money later that day because all the overs hit in the late afternoon window.
There’s a chance a perfect storm hits again for Week 8. The Dolphins (+7.5 at Falcons), Bears (+6.5 at Ravens), Panthers (+7.5 vs. Bills), Jets (+6.5 at Bengals), Browns (+7 at Patriots) and Giants (+7.5 at Eagles) are all touchdown underdogs and they’re all kicking off at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. The only game in the early window without a lopsided spread is the Texans hosting the 49ers as a 1.5-point favorite.
“We’re going to be huge Jets fans, huge Bears fans, huge Dolphins fans, huge Panthers fans, huge Giants fans and huge Browns fans,” says Chuck Esposito, the race and sports director for Station Casinos. “I think with all those games sitting around that touchdown, those are all going to be underdogs that we will need come Sunday.”
These will all likely be liability games for the sportsbooks in Vegas. But before bettors get too confident and parlay all the heavy favorites in the early window, it’s rare when lighting hits in back-to-back weeks.
It’s not a given that the Ravens will return to their dominant ways just because Lamar Jackson is back on the field. Jackson doesn’t play both ways and this Baltimore defense needs all the help it can get. The Bears, who are on a four-game winning streak, can run the football with D’Andre Swift and the Chicago defense has a league-high 16 takeaways.
But Esposito isn’t expecting bettors to focus on the Bears’ positives as of late because they were lucky to beat the Commanders on Jayden Daniels’s fumble in Week 6 and Caleb Williams struggled as a passer against the Saints last week. Also, there hadn’t been much sharp action on Chicago, as of late Wednesday.
“I think if he’s [Jackson] in, I think there’s a real chance this game will go to 7,” Esposito says.
As for other buyer-beware games, the surging Patriots might get punched in the mouth a few times by the Browns’ physicality. They play tough defense and have bruising rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. And it’s tough to trust the Bengals’ shaky defense to cover that large of a spread vs. a desperate Jets team that will scratch and claw in hopes of winning their first game of the season.
With more insight from Esposito, here’s everything you need to know betting wise about NFL Week 8.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 8
There’s at least one big dog that the sharps are backing this week.
Esposito said the sharps have shown support for the Panthers, causing the line to drop from eight to 7.5 points.
“We’ve seen a little sharp money on the Panthers, but my guess is that the public is clearly going to be on the Bills this week,” Esposito says.
The Bills entered their bye week licking their wounds from a two-game losing streak against the Patriots and Falcons. Also, Buffalo didn’t cover large spreads vs. New Orleans and Miami, and hasn’t covered since Week 2 against the Jets.
Don’t underestimate this pesky Panthers squad, which is 3–0 at home.
Odds Movement NFL Week 8
Most of the action has been on the Chargers to cover against the Vikings for . Los Angeles is laying 3.5 points after starting the week as three-point favorites.
“I’m personally not sold on [Carson] Wentz at quarterback,” Esposito says. “I think he still makes a lot of mistakes. That was a very winnable game against the Eagles last week that they lost. We’ve seen this number go up from 3 to 3.5. Big game for both teams.”
Esposito is expecting Cowboys at Broncos to take most of the money on Sunday. As of Wednesday, most of the bets were on the Broncos, who went from three-point favorites to laying 3.5 points.
Big Winners From Last Week
Speaking of the Cowboys, a customer at Caesars sportsbooks won a $330,000 bet thanks to Dallas covering as 1.5-point favorites against Washington. As for another big bet victory at Caesars sportsbooks, someone placed $275,000 on the Browns to cover as 2.5-point favorites against the Dolphins.
Again, it was a memorable Week 7 for bettors going against underdogs.
Manzano’s NFL Week 8 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Vikings (+3.5) at Chargers
Esposito said most of the money is on the Chargers, but I’m going the other way for . I can’t trust this terrible L.A. offensive line to hold up against Brian Flores’s defense, even with a potential return of left tackle Joe Alt.
Also, the Chargers can’t run the ball nor stop the run. It won’t be easy, but I’d rather sweat with the Wentz–led Vikings.
Enticing Bet: Cowboys (+3.5) at Broncos
I’m looking forward to seeing whether Bo Nix & Co. can hang with the Cowboys’ offense. There’s been too much praise on the Broncos’ defense, with many overlooking how poorly they played against the Giants last week.
Dak Prescott & Co. can score against any defense in the league.
Moneyline Dog: Bears (+235) at Ravens
I can’t get over how poorly the Ravens played before the bye week. Even with a healthy Jackson, this team struggled to hang with the Lions, Bills and Chiefs. I’m not saying the Bears are as good as those teams, but they have a chance in Baltimore because of their productive rushing attack. It’s been more of the Swift show than the Williams show.
SuperDog: Browns (+7) at Patriots
This young Patriots squad hasn’t been tested by a physical defense. New England has beaten Tennessee, New Orleans, Buffalo and Carolina during this four-game winning streak.
The physicality will increase against Myles Garrett’s defense. The Browns aren’t a very good team, but they can defend and run the football. This will be a good challenge for Drake Maye.
Not So Risky: Steelers (+3) vs. Packers
Expect Aaron Rodgers’s best against his former team. Pittsburgh will play at home on 10 days of rest. Also, Green Bay hasn’t covered since Week 2 vs. Washington.
Stay Away: Falcons (-7.5) vs. Dolphins
I can’t trust the Falcons to cover this big of a spread, even against the struggling Dolphins. Atlanta delivered a dud last week in San Francisco.
Parlay: Panthers (+7) vs. Bills; Eagles (-7.5) vs. Giants; Buccaneers (-4.5) at Saints
Just a reminder, I hit on my parlay suggestion last week. I’m always going to brag whenever I get a parlay right. I’ll back two heavy favorites here. The Buccaneers should bounce back vs. the poor Saints. And the Eagles will look to crush the young Giants after their rookies embarrassed them a few weeks back.
Favorite Fave: Colts (-14) vs. Titans
I have no issues with laying two touchdowns with the red-hot Colts. This team knows how to handle business, going 5–2 against the spread to start the season.
Best Over/Under Total: Bears-Ravens (under 49.5, -108)
I’m expecting both teams to lean on the run heavily for a low-scoring matchup.
